[nfbwatlk] Hard for M's to proclaim upgrade

[Mike Freeman]

Hard for M's to proclaim upgrade
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/baseball/295731_thiel13.html

Hard for M's to proclaim upgrade

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

By ART THIEL
P-I COLUMNIST

Rarely one to offer illumination casually, Bill Bavasi used the term 
"miserable" to describe his experience at baseball's recent winter meetings 
at Disney
World.

You know, the place where the Mariners qualified to become the eighth dwarf.

Stating the obvious normally has been the province of departing broadcaster 
Ron Fairly ("remember, the tying run will never beat you"). But the futility
of the Mariners was so stark that the general manager saw no point in 
talking around it.

"This was one of the more miserable winter meetings I've ever been to," he 
told the P-I's John Hickey. "Between the lack of activity and the volcanic 
(free
agent) market, it was tough."

Tough for some, anyway. What truly will be miserable for Bavasi is 
explaining to Mariners fans how the team is better.

He can't. Not with a straight face.

In terms of career profile, new pitcher Miguel Batista, a free agent to be 
signed this week, is Gil Meche, only seven years older.
The career averages for new right fielder Jose Guillen (.272, 21 homers, 83 
RBIs) are, as explained in Tuesday's P-I, almost exactly the cumulative 
numbers
of the nine veteran free-agent position players signed by the Mariners since 
1999 (.273, 19.4, 80.9).
The striking feature about new pitcher Horacio Ramirez is that the 
pitching-shrewd Braves were willing to trade a starter to get a set-up 
reliever. That
tells more about the future of Ramirez than anything the Mariners will say 
in defending the trade of Rafael Soriano.What can be broadly stated about 
these
transactions is that they represent merely a churn of the roster.

The replacement of more or less average players with more or less average 
players is a proven formula used by many mediocre pro sports teams to stay 
mediocre.

If this is the franchise's best response to the installation of, in the 
words of CEO Howard Lincoln, the hot seat for the 2007 season, perhaps the 
Mariners
need to upgrade their pressure device to, say, polonium-210.

The Mariners are in high dither, caught between past mistakes and fear of 
the future.

Using the mirror of hindsight to reflect the big picture, the execs couldn't 
bring themselves to tear down from the success of 2001 and ask the faithful
for the indulgence of a rebuild. Now, they can't work up the guts to execute 
in a marketplace that, however absurd it appears -- for example, to an 
emergency
room nurse at Harborview doing something important -- is nearly as 
fundamental to the game as 90 feet between the bases.

If a runner can't call himself safe at 88 feet, the Mariners can't say, "We 
don't like the market, so we won't play."

To their credit, they overpaid to get Batista to fill the back end of the 
starting rotation for $24 million over three years. But overpayment is the 
coin
of the realm, particularly in Seattle. During his tenure as GM, Pat Gillick 
warned that the Mariners will always have to pay a premium because of the 
franchise's
location so far from most everywhere.

Among those good, veteran free agents who care where they live and have 
options, teams in Southern California, Arizona, Texas and Georgia/Florida 
usually
win out. Players are also attracted to teams in New York, Boston and Chicago 
for the money.

The win in October by the St. Louis Cardinals broke a string of 11 
consecutive World Series championships from teams in either the Sun Belt or 
Money Belt.
The bottom line is that the Mariners' urgency to get well via free agency is 
an even more expensive cure for them than it is for many others.

The better choices for roster improvement are the farm system and 
international free agency. The Mariners have done well in the latter, which 
includes Ichiro
Suzuki, Kenji Johjima, Felix Hernandez, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez.

But in the former, well, here's a view from a prominent outsider. In the 
latest issue of Baseball America trade magazine, the staff letter-graded all 
the
organizations in five categories -- major leagues, minor leagues, talent 
level, player procurement and organization direction.

The Dodgers were named organization of the year, one of three teams given an 
A or A-. Moving down the curve, 11 B's and 12 C's were issued. Then came the
flailing four -- Royals and Pirates D+, Mariners and Nationals Ds.

Hey, at least the Mariners didn't flunk.

Here was the biggest indictment. In the category of talent level: "Among the 
worst group of prospects in the minor leagues."

It's one media outlet's opinion, of course. But if it weren't true, the 
Mariners would be filling holes with their own, not expensive free agents. 
And now,
with the departures of Meche, Soriano and probably Joel Pineiro (he was 
non-tendered Tuesday), three of the most highly prized farm-raised pitchers 
over
the past decade are gone, with only Ramirez, who last season with the Braves 
had hamstring injuries in both legs, a concussion and a torn finger tendon,
to show for it.

We'd like to lighten the mood here, but the fact is the one tactic left to 
salvage any offseason roster upgrades is (gasp!) trades.

Lock up the silverware, put the kids in the basement, pull the spark plug 
wires on the car.

If you're a Mariners fan who's tallied the booty from the trades of Freddy 
Garcia, Carlos Guillen, Randy Winn and Jamie Moyer, you know your Christmas 
present
will be fleece.

Maybe, as Bavasi has said too often about his acquisitions, the Mariners 
"will catch lightning in a bottle."

Or get lit up.

The resolute Mariners fan can only hope the club doesn't strike a deal with 
the Oakland A's, where GM Billy Beane probably knows that, for four Raiders
tickets, he can get Hernandez.

BOTTOM FEEDER
In its latest issue, Baseball America ranked all 30 franchises based on 
major league performance, minor league performance, talent level, player 
procurement
and organization direction. Only the Washington Nationals ranked lower than 
the Mariners:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Detroit Tigers

3. Minnesota Twins

4. New York Mets

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

6. St. Louis Cardinals

7. New York Yankees

8. Oakland Athletics

9. Cleveland Indians

10. Florida Marlins

11. Los Angeles Angels

12. Boston Red Sox

13. Philadelphia Phillies

14. San Diego Padres

15. Cincinnati Reds

16. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

17. Atlanta Braves

18. Chicago White Sox

19. Colorado Rockies

20. Houston Astros

21. San Francisco Giants

22. Toronto Blue Jays

23. Baltimore Orioles

24. Chicago Cubs

25. Milwaukee Brewers

26. Texas Rangers

27. Kansas City Royals

28. Pittsburgh Pirates

29. Seattle Mariners

30. Washington Nationals

-- Baseball America

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P-I columnist Art Thiel can be reached at 206-448-8135 or 
artthiel at seattlepi.com.

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